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Social Scenario Planning - macrotrends

Social Scenario Planning

Co-create future scenarios with all stakeholders

  • Explore the future together

  • Richer input, better results

  • Greater support for the insights

  • Shorter turnaround time

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Social Scenario Planning

Online tool for scenario planning

Social Scenario Planning is an online tool that enables you to develop scenarios and identify strategic options to respond to those scenarios. The tool is designed for organizations that want to independently conduct scenario analysis as well as for consultants that use scenario planning.

Co-create scenarios with all stakeholders

Social Scenario Planning aids organizations step by step in developing scenarios. A central component in this process is the involvement of both internal and external experts. This provides richer scenarios and strategic options and greater support for the results. The tool comprises 5 steps. All of these steps are facilitated online. Also, the tool can easily be used in conjunction with offline activities, such as workshops and interviews.

Social Scenario Planning is unmatched in the opportunity to develop scenarios in a short timespan that are broadly supported by stakeholders.

Scenario planning

Get a grip on your turbulent environment with scenario planning

The external environment organizations operate in is becoming increasingly more unpredictable. Traditional, rigid forms of strategy development and forecasting do not suffice anymore. Not the certainties, but the uncertainties should fulfil a central role. How do you anticipate these uncertainties? Scenario planning is the answer.

Develop a robust strategy in different scenarios

Scenario planning is a method in which you develop several plausible future scenarios to explore the development of key uncertainties and the opportunities and risks that these key uncertainties entail. Scenarios are extreme yet imaginable descriptions of the future. Each scenario brings specific opportunities and strategies. Strategies that suit each scenario are called robust and provide good cornerstones for your strategic plan.

Axes key uncertainties scenarios

Social Scenario Planning in 5 steps

Step 1: Define scope

List important strategic questions and define the scope of the scenario analysis.

The scenario analysis begins with defining a clear scope. This scope is created by determining the focal question the scenarios need to answer, the boundaries of the study (range and depth), the time horizon and the relevant stakeholders for the analysis.

Step 2: Identify trends

Identify macro trends and trends in the business environment

The scan of the external environment is the foundation for drafting scenarios. It is composed of identifying and listing external developments. Both external developments in the macro environment and more direct business environments need to be examined.

The community decides which trends in the macro environment are the most relevant by ‘liking’ the listed developments. The trends in the business environment of the organization will be defined and discussed by the community members. External experts also give their input on relevant external developments in the community.

Step 3: Analyze trends

Rank trends on interdependence, impact and unpredictability

In step 3 the trend clusters will be assessed on their impact on the strategic questions (as formulated in the scope), their unpredictability and their interdependence (by performing a ‘cross-impact’ analysis). The goal of these steps is to determine the two most important ‘key uncertainties’, which will form the axes of a 2×2 matrix for the scenarios (scenario framework).

Step 4: Create scenarios

Define scenario framework and describe the four scenarios

In the fourth phase scenarios are created. The key uncertainties, the trend clusters with the highest impact and unpredictability will form the starting point. A 2×2 matrix is made in which the two key uncertainties are set apart on the axes. This framework forms the basis for the scenarios. The community brainstorms on deep causes and characteristics of the scenarios and provides feedback on the first drafts of the scenarios.

Step 5: Define strategic options

Define the strategic options to be successful in one or more scenarios

In the final phase, the online community is involved one more time to formulate new strategic options together. The focus lies on formulating practical and concrete actions and policies.

Project management tool

The project management tool is designed for the project manager (employee or external consultant). The project manager informs the co-creation community about progress and generates input by means of a number of assignments. Assignments range from brainstorming trends to assessing key uncertainties and generating strategic options.

Co-creation community

The online co-creation community is the ideal place for co-creation. Project members and other stakeholders provide input on strategic questions, trends and scenario content. They give feedback on the deliverables that are proposed by the project manager. In this process they’re collaborating to create the scenarios and strategic options.

Overview of functionality

1. Define scope

Brainstorm on strategic questions

Publish list of strategic questions

Edit and publish scope

Feedback on concept scope

Deliverable: Scope

2. Identify trends

Select macro trends from our trend library

Brainstorm on trends: add new trends, like trends, comment on trends

Edit trend list by project manager: merge, prioritize, edit

Publish trend list and ask for feedback

Deliverable: Trend list

3. Analyze trends

Score trends on impact and unpredictability

Score trends on cross-impact

Publish ranked trend list and ask for feedback

Deliverable: Ranked trend list based on scores

4. Create scenarios

Define key uncertainties (axes of the 2×2 scenario framework)

Brainstorm on deep causes and characteristics of the scenarios

Write scenarios based on scenario templates

Provide feedback on concept versions

Deliverable: Scenario framework and scenarios

5. Define strategic options

Brainstorm on challenges and strategic options

Score strategic options per scenario

Deliverable: Ranked list of strategic options

Project management tool

Overview of phases and results in dashboard

Detailed description of phases and actions

Templates for all deliverables

Tips from our experience

Co-creation community

Overview of phases and results in dashboard

Weblog with project updates and assignments

Provide feedback on concept versions of deliverables

Alerts

Daily or weekly updates by email, with the newest posts and responses

Update is automatically sent to all members

Members can adjust the frequency of the alerts or sign out

And more

Overview of latest blog posts

Overview of latest comments

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